January 03, 2007
Rahul Bhonsle
A report by the Union Home Ministry presented in the Parliament indicated that there has been a decline in the level of violence in Jammu and Kashmir and the situation in the North East had also improved. The conditions in Naxal affected areas have however deteriorated though the number of incidents has gone down during the Year. Security-risks.com with a greater focus on human security has analysed the trend based on the number of civilian casualties in militancy affected areas. Given this parameter, the data denotes greater number of civilians killed in Naxal violence in the country at 467 as opposed to 240 in Kashmir during the year. The deaths of civilians in the North East were just two less than Kashmir at 238, thereby indicating a virtual parity between the two disturbed areas. This perhaps places Kashmir second in the order of security threats after Naxalism purely based on civilian casualties.
There was apparent dichotomy in the figures as given by the Defence Minister in a written reply in the Parliament during the same session which indicated that 180 army personnel including 12 officers had been killed till 5 December 2006 in counter insurgency operations. There is a wide variation of 49 personnel killed even if we take that all security forces personnel killed in the Valley during year were from the Army which is not correct. On the other hand one interpretation could be that 50 army personnel were killed from the period from 31 October to 5 December which again appears to be unlikely.
Apprehension of Terrorists in Delhi
The Delhi police arrested two Lashkar e Taiyyaba terrorists near Palam, Delhi with explosives. Gulzar Ganai and Mohammed Amin Hazam from Kashmir were accused of planning terror strikes. This was followed up on the last day of the year with the arrest of two terrorists planning to plant bombs on New Years Eve in the Paharganj area. The two individuals, Samiullah and Ali Mohammad were apprehended outside the New Delhi Railway station while proceeding to place the explosives concealed in toys. The individuals are said to have planned to carry out this operation in the 45 minutes halt of the Andaman Express from Jammu to Chennai at New Delhi. (Hindustan Times Report, 01 January 2007). These have been a few of the many apprehensions made by the police in and around the national capital. How far this has made the life of the people safer in the Capital is however a moot question.
A disturbing trend noticed during the month was the apprehension of three youth from Manipur who were in possession of two kgs of RDX, hand grenades and detonators from the Red Fort area of New Delhi. These were said to be Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) terrorists who were having links with groups in Manipur. The apprehensions in turn were the outcome of interrogation of terrorists trained in Bangladesh who had been held in October 2006 in Delhi. These personnel are said to have links with terrorists in Manipur and had been in Bangladesh which was attempting to establish links with the Islamist outfit of Manipur, People's United Liberation Front ( PULF). Security Trends had indicated in its November issue of reports of Islamisation of the militancy in the North East with greater links with Bangladeshi outfits and also intervention of the DGFI and the ISI.
Institutional Measures
Large scale money laundering and hawala transactions were proposed to be checked by the Prevention of Money Laundering Act in India. The effectiveness of this Act will however be determined by the number of people apprehended and cases registered by the Enforcement Directorate which is the sole agency which can charge people. Thus so far it is said that only a dozen cases have been registered under this Act. The Mumbai police also reported its inability to register cases on some of the accused in the 7/11 Mumbai blasts case despite the provision in Section 4 of the Maharashtra Control of Organized Crime Act (MCOCA) due to requirement of detailed evidence. This is not possible in the case of money laundering which operates through a hawala network which leaves a limited trail. This was perhaps the background of greater teeth to laws for combating terrorism demanded by the Chief of the Intelligence Bureau recently.
The Government is said to have established a Multi Agency centre and a joint task force on intelligence to facilitate horizontal and vertical coordination amongst the central intelligence agencies and also between the Central and state intelligence agencies. The special branch of police is also being strengthened to increase its capability for collection and sharing of local intelligence to prevent terrorist and anti national activities. A preemptive action to burst terrorist networks has also been taken which has resulted in 246 Pak backed modules being busted during the period from 2001 to 30 September 2006.
Emphasis was also said to be on improving metropolitan policing in the cities of Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad, Mumbai and Kolkata during the year 2005-06. This was said to be a part of the plan for Modernization of State Police Forces. These were said to have been allotted Rs 22 Crore during the year with an increase to Rs 86 Crore during the year 2007-08. The funds were to be utilized for improving surveillance, crime investigation, traffic management, critical infrastructure including control rooms, digital radio trunking, communication system and PCR van networks.
Threat Analysis
Police investigations into blasts on 8 September in Malegoan have clearly indicated that the aim of the accused was to create communal disharmony and trigger riots. This has been the main aim of the terrorists operating in the Indian hinterland over the years. Having failed a number of times earlier, the design this time may be to target a popular political leader as Sonia Gandhi or Atal Bihari Vajpayee to invite wide spread retribution by the masses. This was perhaps the background of the alert sounded for a possible attempt on the life of Mrs Sonia Gandhi during the month. A review of the threat based on such a premise may be necessary for the consequences of such an attack would be extremely grave, affecting communal harmony within the country as well as Indo Pakistan relations. Given this proposition, this will be all the more attractive for the terrorists given that post 7/11 and Malegaon strikes they have lost their sting in India.
Rahul K Bhonsle is a veteran soldier and security analyst based in South Asia, specializing in strategic risk prediction, future warfare and human security. His web site is www.security-risks.com and can be contacted at rkbhonsle@gmail.com
http://desicritics.org/2007/01/03/004541.php
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